Reports I write for the group I trade with. Each one picks a question and works through it: positioning, options, technicals, macro, then a view and the level that would prove it wrong.
Oil at $90 and SOX 20% off its record. My read was a positioning unwind with a macro excuse, not a demand problem: the crowd was still buying dips, gamma was short, and the EUV supply gate was intact. Verdict: better price, unconfirmed bottom. Scale in, don't dive in.
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How gold went from a 28% drawdown to its best week in seven months. One mechanism explained most of it (gold trading as the anti-hike asset while the oil shock fed CPI), the physical bid never left, and the reversal call got a dated kill switch.
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The shift from a Q1 bull flattener to a bear steepener after Middle East crude got shut in, with equities at highs on earnings rather than multiples. Which curve segments matter, and why 2s10s was the wrong one to watch.
Open PDF →Data from exchange feeds, FRED, filings and the options chain. Charts in Python. I use AI to speed up the data pull and the layout, then go through everything myself before it goes out. No positions or P&L on here.